Economic modeling by Purdue University continues to reduce predicted emissions of ‘indirect land use change’
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Jessica Robinson
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – Biomass-based fuels present a tremendous opportunity to transition toward a more sustainable mix of renewable energy. This was a key theme of an alternative fuels workshop hosted today by the U.S. Department of Energy in Macon, Georgia. The workshop examined the sustainability of feedstocks like soybean oil, which can be used to make biodiesel or alternative jet fuel.
Wally Tyner, a professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, presented his research team’s latest findings today regarding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of producing biodiesel from soybeans. Those findings confirm that soybean oil offers very good carbon reduction when used to displace fossil fuel. Tyner is supported by the James and Louis Ackerman endowment.
“While these results are preliminary,” Tyner said, “our most recent analysis suggests that induced land use change emissions could be as much as 70 percent lower than those adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) as recently as last year.”
Tyner and the experts at Purdue are using the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to build upon the previous work done for CARB. Significant change results from updating the underlying data from 2004 to 2011. A lot changed in agriculture and biofuels between 2004 and 2011, Tyner said. Biofuel policies expanded greatly during that period. The other major factor reflects increased total outputs per farm area through yield improvements and practices such as double cropping.
“We now have much more data,” Tyner said. “We are better equipped to quantify potential land use change by observing what has actually happened in the real world, and calibrating our models to make better predictions on that basis.”
“Consensus is rarely achieved when it comes to the theory of indirect land use change, but one thing is clear,” said Don Scott, National Biodiesel Board director of sustainability. “As the accuracy and reliability of modeling improves, we observe a steady decline in the estimates of predicted land use change. This reaffirms that biodiesel reduces GHG emissions by at least 50 percent and suggests that the real benefit is greater than 80 percent.”
Biodiesel has long been championed by USDA and the Department of Energy for reducing carbon emissions by nearly 80 percent compared to petroleum[i]. The USEPA and CARB have gone beyond traditional lifecycle analysis to quantify the potential expansion of agriculture that might be induced by major biofuel policies.
Both regulatory agencies have conducted economic modeling to quantify this indirect effect. While each confirms that biodiesel reduces emissions by at least 50 percent even after adding potential indirect emissions[ii], interest remains in studying these effects with more certainty, Scott said.
“Today’s announcement adds confidence in the GHG benefits of biodiesel, while improving our understanding of how agriculture can respond to growing demand,” he said.
Made from an increasingly diverse mix of resources such as soybean oil, recycled cooking oil, and animal fats, biodiesel is a renewable, clean-burning diesel replacement that can be used in existing diesel engines without modification. It is the nation’s first domestically produced, commercially available advanced biofuel. NBB is the U.S. biodiesel trade association.
For more information visit www.biodiesel.org and follow us on Twitter @Biodiesel_Media
 The team for this project consists of Tyner, Research Associate Professor Farzad Taheripour, and post doctoral associate Hao Cui.
[i] National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Lifecycle Inventory of Biodiesel and Petroleum Diesel for Use in an Urban Bus; 1998; http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/fy98/24089.pdf;
Wang, Huo, Arora; Methods of dealing with co-products of biofuel in life-cycle analysis and consequent results within the U.S. context; Energy Policy 2010;
Pradhan, Shrestha, Van Gerpen, McAloon, Yee, Haas, Duffield; Reassessment of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Soybean Biodiesel; American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers; 2012; http://www.researchgate.net/publication/234143981_Reassessment_of_Life_Cycle_Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_for_Soybean_Biodiesel/file/d912f51234a621f896.pdf
Federal Register, March 26, 2010, page 14788-14789, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-03-26/pdf/2010-3851.pdf; http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/040115_pathway_ci_comparison.pdf